tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5123812571831095619.post8849843265614677058..comments2023-03-29T02:18:25.786-07:00Comments on 2013 Triple Crown Trail: 2011 Preakness Stakes (Updated on 05/19)Brent Austin Neikirkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13444727189908906417noreply@blogger.comBlogger87125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5123812571831095619.post-4936433529965364132011-05-19T07:01:49.574-07:002011-05-19T07:01:49.574-07:00Ok, I have a new post for blind handicapping the P...Ok, I have a new post for blind handicapping the Preakness. Check it out and let me know what you think.Brentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5123812571831095619.post-73402796080137873912011-05-19T05:01:10.705-07:002011-05-19T05:01:10.705-07:00If you watch past Preakness races, I don't thi...If you watch past Preakness races, I don't think the post positions hurt any of these horses. However, I think we can count out 12, 13 and 14 in terms of finishing in the top 4. They won't be there. AK, DI and MMM will be there! I think Flashpoint goes to the lead with Shack right off of him and DC right off of Shack. So, those 3 will be up front with Astrology bottled up right behind them on the rail along with the other stalker/presser types. MMM should be able to go with DC out of the gate and then sit behind those 3 leaders and same with MI cuz SA should drop back heading for the 1st turn. Obviously, DI will be in the back and AK should be right behind MMM. DC should get a good trip and get first jump kind of like the Ark. Derby, then MMM will be making his move and I think he gets the lead in the stretch and then AK and DI coming late. Should be a good race!!Brentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5123812571831095619.post-27743571073718770562011-05-18T14:25:35.645-07:002011-05-18T14:25:35.645-07:001) Astrology-Early Speed/Presser
2) Norman Asbjorn...1) Astrology-Early Speed/Presser<br />2) Norman Asbjornson-Stalker/Presser<br />3) King Congie-Stalker<br />4) Flashpoint-Speed<br />5) Shackleford-Speed<br />6) Sway Away-Closer<br />7) Midnight Interlude-Stalker<br />8) Dance City-Speed<br />9) Mucho Macho Man-Presser/Stalker<br />10)Dialed In-Deep Closer<br />11)Animal Kingdom-Versatile<br />12)Isn't He Perfect-Early Speed/Stalker<br />13)Concealed Identity-Stalker<br />14)Mr. Commons-Stalker/PresserHowynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5123812571831095619.post-87863422917529951082011-05-18T13:51:39.792-07:002011-05-18T13:51:39.792-07:00Correction: Post 2) Last = 1985Correction: Post 2) Last = 1985Howynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5123812571831095619.post-28256899349003083562011-05-18T13:45:48.729-07:002011-05-18T13:45:48.729-07:00POST POSITION HISTORY SINCE 1903
PP# WINS LAST...POST POSITION HISTORY SINCE 1903<br /><br />PP# WINS LAST HORSE<br /><br />1) 10 / 1994 / Tobasco Cat<br />2) 12 / 1986 / Tank's Prospect<br />3) 11 / 1993 / Prairie Bayou<br />4) 13 / 2007 / Curlin<br />5) 10 / 1976 / Elocutionist<br />6) 15 / 2008 / Big Brown<br />7) 13 / 2010 / Lookin At Lucky<br />8) 10 / 2006 / Bernardini<br />9) 3 / 2003 / Funny Cide<br />10) 2 / 1998 / Real Quiet<br />11) 2 / 2001 / Point Given<br />12) 3 / 2005 / Afleet Alex<br />13) 1 / 2009 / Rachel Alexandra<br />14) 0 / NA / NAHowynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5123812571831095619.post-4898568002817423762011-05-18T12:09:03.498-07:002011-05-18T12:09:03.498-07:00No, because like you said there are people that ha...No, because like you said there are people that have their favs and rate them as a 10 and vice versa. So, I don't put any stock into the ratings.<br /><br />Post draw in 2 hours!!!Brentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5123812571831095619.post-31952341421699596812011-05-18T10:03:48.999-07:002011-05-18T10:03:48.999-07:00Brent, do you put much stock in the HRN Power Rank...Brent, do you put much stock in the HRN Power Rankings? <br /><br />To me, the HRN rankings constitute a poll that is indicative of how people who are interested in the sport, i.e., the bettors, are prone to wager in any given race based on their opinion of any given horse.<br /><br />In this instance, AK,DI,MMM and MI would constitute the most heavily wagered in a super.<br /> <br />The only exception to objectivity is demonstrated when some posters (fans) with an agenda overrate or underrate particular horses and in those cases, the ranking is adulterated and must be discounted or given less weight (eg Zen fans rate Rachel a 1 and vica versa and the same with Blame to a lesser extent).<br /><br />What do you think?Howynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5123812571831095619.post-12014423646678188372011-05-18T08:25:36.702-07:002011-05-18T08:25:36.702-07:00Mucho Macho Man 5/17 D/Sloppy Bel 4f @ 49.28 B ...Mucho Macho Man 5/17 D/Sloppy Bel 4f @ 49.28 B 1/4<br /><br />Concealed Identity 5/18 D/Muddy Bowie 3f @ 36.20 B 1/2Howynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5123812571831095619.post-11916714913654196512011-05-18T05:18:15.752-07:002011-05-18T05:18:15.752-07:00That's cool! After the post draw today, I'...That's cool! After the post draw today, I'll try and post some of the horses for the "Blind Handicap" that we'll do. So far, I've got the following to post for each horse:<br /><br />- race record<br />- figs<br />- last 1/4 or 1/8m split in last 2 races<br />- TDR rating<br />- Sire and BMS's AWD<br />- graded stakes record, distance included<br />- dosage profile and center of distribution (though, I don't put much emphasis on these)<br /><br />And anything else you can think of that might help us let me know.Brentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5123812571831095619.post-19981005039495905172011-05-17T12:33:28.633-07:002011-05-17T12:33:28.633-07:00Correction: Horse A had three P's not S's....Correction: Horse A had three P's not S's.Howynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5123812571831095619.post-1740657205504937722011-05-17T12:31:49.072-07:002011-05-17T12:31:49.072-07:00If you don't think it will skew the objectivit...If you don't think it will skew the objectivity we're trying to get from a blind handicap, you might consider including their records in graded stakes competitions with or without distances attached to results, eg:<br /><br />Horse A 4:1-3-0<br /> 1M=W<br /> 1 1/16=S<br /> 1 1/8=S<br /> 1 1/18=S<br /> 1M=S<br /><br />Horse B 1:0-0-1<br /> 1 1/8=S<br /><br />If they came in fourth in a graded stakes race, I would notate that since we're trying to construct a super ticket. Just a thought.Howynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5123812571831095619.post-51090702239431146052011-05-17T12:08:17.781-07:002011-05-17T12:08:17.781-07:00Cool! I'll put it together after the post draw...Cool! I'll put it together after the post draw tomorrow. I'd also like to add some more info without giving away the identity of the horse, if that's possible. Any thoughts there?Brentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5123812571831095619.post-16885259032540373932011-05-17T11:42:13.233-07:002011-05-17T11:42:13.233-07:00I think it's a great idea Brent. Thanks!I think it's a great idea Brent. Thanks!Howynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5123812571831095619.post-37883267673715305812011-05-17T11:34:16.725-07:002011-05-17T11:34:16.725-07:00That was just an example of what I would do with a...That was just an example of what I would do with all 14 horses or however many run. And then we would compare all of them to each other. Btw, I agree with you, I like Horse B and that's Dance City. Horse A was Astrology. I was just seeing if it's worth doing all the horses. That's why I wanted your all's thoughts.Brentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5123812571831095619.post-39569405952512748302011-05-17T11:29:02.933-07:002011-05-17T11:29:02.933-07:00Mucho Macho Man 5/17 D/Sloppy 4f @ 49.28 B 1/4Mucho Macho Man 5/17 D/Sloppy 4f @ 49.28 B 1/4Howynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5123812571831095619.post-79582347458864295492011-05-17T11:18:16.848-07:002011-05-17T11:18:16.848-07:00I'm glad Nehro's out because had he entere...I'm glad Nehro's out because had he entered, there would have been too much chalk and it would have adversely affected the risk to reward ratio in that every superfecta player worth his salt would have the same four and even if it hit, the payout in relation to the outlay would probably not justify the risk. <br /><br />A quick glance at the HRN ratings for the Preakness field would indicate this.Howynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5123812571831095619.post-26504699729017060342011-05-17T11:01:35.357-07:002011-05-17T11:01:35.357-07:00Are we trying to compare the above two to each oth...Are we trying to compare the above two to each other or those two against the field? <br /><br />If we're comparing them to each other, I like Horse B better because his TDR and BMS AWD's are better.<br />While their BSF's are essentially identical, I think as the routes stretch out, stamina on the bottom takes precedence over speed.Howynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5123812571831095619.post-32984802006511688462011-05-17T08:02:13.521-07:002011-05-17T08:02:13.521-07:00So, my top contenders as of today without post pos...So, my top contenders as of today without post positions are:<br /><br />1. Mucho Macho Man<br />2. Dialed In<br />3. Dance City<br />4. Animal Kingdom<br />5. Midnight Interlude<br />6. Astrology<br /><br />Now, all we need are the post positions and we can start to map out a trip for the Preakness.Brentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5123812571831095619.post-67223275368848406032011-05-17T07:43:28.800-07:002011-05-17T07:43:28.800-07:00Nehro is out! That's what I thought they'd...Nehro is out! That's what I thought they'd do.<br />MMM is doing very well! Worked 4f in :49 and 1 over a sloppy Belmont track. He's my pick and has been since early last week.Brentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5123812571831095619.post-55612545040898418022011-05-17T05:49:11.665-07:002011-05-17T05:49:11.665-07:00It's kind of hard to do, though, because we kn...It's kind of hard to do, though, because we know the horses so well. But I think it's worth a shot. Just try not to guess who the horse is and focus on their figs and other info.<br /><br />For example, I'll take two Preakness contenders and compare their figs and other important factors:<br /><br />Horse A<br />Figs: BSFs in last 2 races - 87 (March), 93 (April), PFs -12, -41<br />Race Record: 7-2-3-2 (all dirt races)<br />Tomlinson Distance Rating: 338<br />Sire's AWD (dirt and AWS): 8.70f<br />BMS's AWD (dirt and AWS): 7.76f<br />Any other info??<br /><br />Horse B<br />Figs: BSFs in last 2 races - 85 (March), 95 (April), PFs -46<br />Race Record: 4-2-1-1 (all dirt races)<br />TDR: 395<br />Sire's AWD (dirt and AWS): 7.32f<br />BMS's AWD (dirt and AWS): 8.48f<br /><br />They both look pretty good, but we would have to compare them with the other 12 horses to get a real fix on who is the best. Could be really useful! I would like to add a little more info on each horse, though. Thoughts?Brentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5123812571831095619.post-75635762177221206282011-05-17T05:18:51.402-07:002011-05-17T05:18:51.402-07:00Most of the time when people are handicapping for ...Most of the time when people are handicapping for the Preakness they tend to go with the horses they already know and don't really analyze the entire field by looking at their past performances and other important factors. In other words, they see a name without fully comparing them and their figs with the rest of the field and/or considering other conditions of the race like distance, surface, etc. So, what I think would help is to blind handicap the field, which means that I'll have all of their info, without their names, so that we can analyze and compare each horse with the rest of the field. I think this would help us in determining the best horses. Not that we don't already have a good sense of who they are, but just to make sure we're not leaving anyone out or for that matter taking someone that doesn't deserve to be in the top 5 just because of their name or, well, you know what I mean. Thoughts?Brentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5123812571831095619.post-16617032044610124862011-05-16T11:30:56.385-07:002011-05-16T11:30:56.385-07:00It doesn't say confirmed yet, but it looks lik...It doesn't say confirmed yet, but it looks like MI is going to the Preakness for sure. I didn't see this the first time I skimmed over the article.<br /><br />“After what I saw today, we are going to the Preakness. I feel pretty good about him. I think he is better now than he was before the Derby. He never really ran in the Derby; he just laid a big goose egg.”<br /><br />Midnight Interlude, meanwhile, galloped out in :48.60 and 1:02.80 before pulling up at the track kitchen by the half-mile pole.<br /><br />“He acted like he got into his work this morning,” said Baffert, who was at Churchill to see the work. “The track was a little greasy this morning, and we haven’t had the best of luck with him here catching fast tracks for works." - http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/63053/astrology-interlude-set-for-preakness#ixzz1MXcFkDyy<br /><br />So yeah, I wouldn't count this guy out! And he'll be a good price, too!Brentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5123812571831095619.post-82379683145331827892011-05-16T11:19:37.847-07:002011-05-16T11:19:37.847-07:00I like SA, but I think the distance might be a bit...I like SA, but I think the distance might be a bit too far for him. I think he's probably at his best at or around 8f. <br /><br />Astrology is getting better with every race and I will definitely use him in the bottom of the exotics in the 3rd and 4th slots. He could finally pop!<br /><br />I like KC, but not in this spot against this group. Same with Mr. Commons. <br /><br />MI is a mystery to me in this spot. I think he's a good horse and he will probably be even better as soon as Baffert switches him to the turf. I hope they don't run him here because I'm not sure what to do with him. I know he'll bounce back, but how far does he move back up??<br /><br />Shack has had 2 great trips in his last 2 outings, therefore, he's had 2 good outcomes. I don't think he gets the trip he wants this time with Flashpoint and DC pressing the pace, but he is hard to knock. I would count him out of the top 4, but I'll probably regret it. I just think Nehro, MMM and DC are better, especially in this spot. Just watch the FOY again. If he gets an outside post in the Preakness, then it could be another FOY where he wasn't a factor. He HAS to be up on the pace. And even when he got exactly what he needed in the Derby, a slow pace on the lead, he only held on for 4th. Just sayin!Brentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5123812571831095619.post-80163361031098791372011-05-16T11:01:36.038-07:002011-05-16T11:01:36.038-07:00I'm loving my boy Nehro, if he runs, MMM and D...I'm loving my boy Nehro, if he runs, MMM and DC right now. DI will be tough with a fast pace and obviously, you can't count AK out. Who knows what he might do. He might be a freak and win the whole TC series! OR...he might be one of those horses that doesn't show up and just had everything going right for him in the Derby like MTB and Super Saver. We'll see!Brentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5123812571831095619.post-48084360946171240692011-05-16T10:42:22.481-07:002011-05-16T10:42:22.481-07:00Interesting information...In the last 30 years, ju...Interesting information...In the last 30 years, just five horses have won the Preakness without starting in the Derby — Aloma’s Ruler (1982), Deputed Testamony (1983), Red Bullet (2000), Bernardini (2006) and Rachel Alexandra (2009)Lanenoreply@blogger.com