Here's what I do to handicap the Derby and what I look for in a Derby horse. One of the first things I do is narrow down the field to somewhere around 8 horses depending on the quality of the field. I really don't do anything final until I see how every horse takes to the CD track, obviously, it would be stupid not to, so really it comes down to the pp draw and then I make my final choices which is about 6 horses give or take depending on the field, same as you. But in terms of what I look for in a Derby horse, it is their pedigree, running style, their preps and my favorite thing to look for is who has a quick turn of foot with a nice, late kick (e.g. Afleet Alex and Street Sense).
I have found that those PFs and pace parameters are pretty accurate, too, no matter what people say about them. However, I dismiss horses who have a high PF in a sprint and then come out with a lower one in a route and that don't have the pedigree/running style like The Factor (even though he has the highest PF, he doesn't fit my profile - I didn't like him in the AD if you look at my comments on him before the AD), although he might not run anyway, but that's an example. The other horses with high PFs - Pants on Fire, Nehro, Dialed In, MMM, Shackleford and Archarcharch are fine because of either having the pedigree, running style and/or nice preps.
Another important thing I look at is a horse that is improving at the right time and who's figs go up with every start and added distance like Nehro and Midnight Interlude. Many will dismiss MI and in any other year I might do it to, but in this field he has a chance. But they will dismiss him because he just broke his maiden in March, but he is improving at the right time, his figs go up with every start and added distance, he has the pedigree (plenty of stamina from the bottom half with his dam winning at 9.5f and 11f and his bms at his best at or around 10f) and running style for the Derby, has Baffert as his trainer (a big plus with such a lightly raced horse!) and has a quick turn of foot which his sire and bms both had. Just watch the SA Derby again. He went 4w the 1st turn and then like 6w into the stretch. And most horses that would have to check up like he did, and so lightly raced, when coming to the wire would not come back that quick and pass up the horse they almost ran into and who had the momentum. It was very impressive and he should only improve off the 95 BSF and being so lightly raced. He is one to watch out for, trust me! My top 8 horses as of right now are: 1. Dialed In 2. Nehro 3. Mucho Macho Man 4. Midnight Interlude 5. Uncle Mo 6. Archarcharch 7. Pants On Fire and 8. Toby's Corner. But that could change depending on the works and post positions. Hopefully that helped a bit! I will get more detailed about each horse and the preps as we get closer and closer to the Derby! GOOD LUCK!
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
Friday, February 18, 2011
Tuesday, February 15, 2011
Two more 3-yos to look out for on the TC Trail
Bowman's Causeway (Giant's Causeway - Victory Encounter by Victory Speech) - recently won a 1 1/8m race at GP.
Nacho Business (Rahy - Palaestra by Atticus) - beat Bowman's Causeway back on Jan. 30th in a one mile race at GP.
Nacho Business (Rahy - Palaestra by Atticus) - beat Bowman's Causeway back on Jan. 30th in a one mile race at GP.
Monday, February 14, 2011
Three more big Derby preps next weekend!!
On Saturday (02/19) we have the Risen which will be a good one featuring Rogue Romance and Machen, two of my top 10 Derby contenders along with Santiva and Wilkinson.
On Sunday we have the San Vicente which should also be a good race with horses like Sway Away (in my top 10), Jaycito, Premier Pegasus and possibly The Factor.
And on Monday, a week from today, we have the Southwest which will have some very good horses in it like JP's Gusto, Alternation, Caleb's Posse, Awesome Patriot and one of my top 5 Derby contenders, Elite Alex. I think EA is going to be VERY GOOD!! He has a very nice pedigree and his daddy is one of my all-time favs. And his tail-female line is very nice with Reine-de-course mares like Gay Hostess, Your Hostess and Boudoir. And along the way getting stamina influences from chef-de-races like Nureyev (C), Secretariat (I/C), Prince John (C), Alibahi (C), Mahmoud (I/C) and Clarissimus (C). And also from Le Fabuleux (P) who is in the X-passing position. So, EA is getting plenty of stamina through his dam.
So, 6 of my top 15 Derby contenders run next weekend. Elite Alex, Sway Away, Awesome Patriot, Alternation, Rogue Romance and Machen. I'm really high on EA and I'm eager to see how SA does in his first race since last August in the Best Pal when he was 2nd to JP's Gusto. SA was coming on very strong down the stretch. I love this guy's pedigree, too, and not just 'cuz I loved Afleet Alex when he ran, but I love that his BMS is Slew and his 2nd dam's sire is Summer Squall and her BMS is Mr. Prospector. Very strong pedigree! I'm also excited to see RR 'cuz he's been training very well. And I like Machen, too. I loved his strong late kick in his last outing. Should be 3 very good Derby preps! Can't wait!!
On Sunday we have the San Vicente which should also be a good race with horses like Sway Away (in my top 10), Jaycito, Premier Pegasus and possibly The Factor.
And on Monday, a week from today, we have the Southwest which will have some very good horses in it like JP's Gusto, Alternation, Caleb's Posse, Awesome Patriot and one of my top 5 Derby contenders, Elite Alex. I think EA is going to be VERY GOOD!! He has a very nice pedigree and his daddy is one of my all-time favs. And his tail-female line is very nice with Reine-de-course mares like Gay Hostess, Your Hostess and Boudoir. And along the way getting stamina influences from chef-de-races like Nureyev (C), Secretariat (I/C), Prince John (C), Alibahi (C), Mahmoud (I/C) and Clarissimus (C). And also from Le Fabuleux (P) who is in the X-passing position. So, EA is getting plenty of stamina through his dam.
So, 6 of my top 15 Derby contenders run next weekend. Elite Alex, Sway Away, Awesome Patriot, Alternation, Rogue Romance and Machen. I'm really high on EA and I'm eager to see how SA does in his first race since last August in the Best Pal when he was 2nd to JP's Gusto. SA was coming on very strong down the stretch. I love this guy's pedigree, too, and not just 'cuz I loved Afleet Alex when he ran, but I love that his BMS is Slew and his 2nd dam's sire is Summer Squall and her BMS is Mr. Prospector. Very strong pedigree! I'm also excited to see RR 'cuz he's been training very well. And I like Machen, too. I loved his strong late kick in his last outing. Should be 3 very good Derby preps! Can't wait!!
Sunday, February 13, 2011
My "Derby Dozen" as of 02/13
Here are my top 12 KY Derby contenders/prospects:
1) To Honor And Serve - Has been my top one since last October. Love this guy's pedigree and tail-female line that comes out of the great Family 4 (4-r, Cub Mare), which has produced the most Preakness and Belmont winners. THAS has 2 very nice Reine-de-course mares Java Moon and her dam Golden Trail in his tail-female line as well. So, this guy is stacked with stamina influences starting with his BMS, Deputy Minister, who has produced some great daughters (like Better Than Honour) that have themselves produced Belmont winners Rags To Riches, Jazil and Sarava and the great Curlin. THAS also has stamina influences from Nijinsky and Graustark who are both designated Classic/Solid Chef-de-races. Had a very nice work last Sunday getting 5f in 1:00.80.
2) Elite Alex - His daddy is one of my favorite horses of all time and I picked him out as a 2-yo when I saw his awesome late kick in the BC Juvy. EA has a great pedigree with a tail-female line that includes some great Chef-de-race Classic influences like Nureyev, Secretariat, Prince John, Alibhai, Mahmoud and Clarissimus. EA also has some great Reine-de-course mares like Gay Hostess, Your Hostess and Boudoir. So, this guy has the pedigree/bloodlines to excel at the classic distances.
3) Brethren - Was spectacular in the SFD yesterday. Will be very dangerous as he improves and stretches out. Has a great pedigree and one of the best tail-female lines of all the Derby contenders.
4) Dialed In - How good can this guy be? And how far can he go? He's a great runner and could get even better. Dangerous!
5) Rogue Romance - I love this guy. He's training very well. Has a great tail-female line that goes back to the great broodmare, Plucky Liege. He's going to be a very good runner no matter the surface or distance.
6) Machen - He's my sleeper pick even though he's getting some attention. Though, most people are focused on Mo, THAS, Brethren and Dialed In. I loved his last race with that strong late kick. My favorite kind of horse is one with a very strong late kick like Afleet Alex and Street Sense had. How far can he go though?
7) Casper's Touch - Will have no problem getting the Classic distances as he has tons of stamina influences. I think he's going to be very good come April/May. Watch out for this guy!!
8) Sway Away - Love this guy's pedigree. Has a very nice tail-female line that includes Reine-de-course mares Late Date, Herd Girl and Torpenhow and some great horses like BMS Seattle Slew, Summer Squall, Mr. Prospector, Nashua, Whirlaway and Colin. Will be one to watch!!
9) Bench Points - Had a nice score Friday in a 6f AlowOC race at SA crossing the wire in a fast 1:08 and change. Is 4 for 4 and will be another one to watch on the trail.
10) Wilkinson - I like this little guy, but how good is he? We'll find out in his next Derby prep against better competition.
11) Manicero - This guy is another sleeper! I like his pedigree a lot! Comes out of the great Family 8 (8-c, Woodbine). Family 8 has produced the great broodmare, Better Than Honour. This guy has plenty of stamina influences with Princequillo in the X-passing position and many European influences like Assert who was a champion in France as a 3-yo and his BMS and Chef-de-race, Sea-Bird.
12) Awesome Patriot - How good can this guy be? Has the pedigree to excel against this talented 3-yo class. Dam is full-sister to the great Tiznow. Eager to see his next start which should be The Southwest at Oaklawn.
1) To Honor And Serve - Has been my top one since last October. Love this guy's pedigree and tail-female line that comes out of the great Family 4 (4-r, Cub Mare), which has produced the most Preakness and Belmont winners. THAS has 2 very nice Reine-de-course mares Java Moon and her dam Golden Trail in his tail-female line as well. So, this guy is stacked with stamina influences starting with his BMS, Deputy Minister, who has produced some great daughters (like Better Than Honour) that have themselves produced Belmont winners Rags To Riches, Jazil and Sarava and the great Curlin. THAS also has stamina influences from Nijinsky and Graustark who are both designated Classic/Solid Chef-de-races. Had a very nice work last Sunday getting 5f in 1:00.80.
2) Elite Alex - His daddy is one of my favorite horses of all time and I picked him out as a 2-yo when I saw his awesome late kick in the BC Juvy. EA has a great pedigree with a tail-female line that includes some great Chef-de-race Classic influences like Nureyev, Secretariat, Prince John, Alibhai, Mahmoud and Clarissimus. EA also has some great Reine-de-course mares like Gay Hostess, Your Hostess and Boudoir. So, this guy has the pedigree/bloodlines to excel at the classic distances.
3) Brethren - Was spectacular in the SFD yesterday. Will be very dangerous as he improves and stretches out. Has a great pedigree and one of the best tail-female lines of all the Derby contenders.
4) Dialed In - How good can this guy be? And how far can he go? He's a great runner and could get even better. Dangerous!
5) Rogue Romance - I love this guy. He's training very well. Has a great tail-female line that goes back to the great broodmare, Plucky Liege. He's going to be a very good runner no matter the surface or distance.
6) Machen - He's my sleeper pick even though he's getting some attention. Though, most people are focused on Mo, THAS, Brethren and Dialed In. I loved his last race with that strong late kick. My favorite kind of horse is one with a very strong late kick like Afleet Alex and Street Sense had. How far can he go though?
7) Casper's Touch - Will have no problem getting the Classic distances as he has tons of stamina influences. I think he's going to be very good come April/May. Watch out for this guy!!
8) Sway Away - Love this guy's pedigree. Has a very nice tail-female line that includes Reine-de-course mares Late Date, Herd Girl and Torpenhow and some great horses like BMS Seattle Slew, Summer Squall, Mr. Prospector, Nashua, Whirlaway and Colin. Will be one to watch!!
9) Bench Points - Had a nice score Friday in a 6f AlowOC race at SA crossing the wire in a fast 1:08 and change. Is 4 for 4 and will be another one to watch on the trail.
10) Wilkinson - I like this little guy, but how good is he? We'll find out in his next Derby prep against better competition.
11) Manicero - This guy is another sleeper! I like his pedigree a lot! Comes out of the great Family 8 (8-c, Woodbine). Family 8 has produced the great broodmare, Better Than Honour. This guy has plenty of stamina influences with Princequillo in the X-passing position and many European influences like Assert who was a champion in France as a 3-yo and his BMS and Chef-de-race, Sea-Bird.
12) Awesome Patriot - How good can this guy be? Has the pedigree to excel against this talented 3-yo class. Dam is full-sister to the great Tiznow. Eager to see his next start which should be The Southwest at Oaklawn.
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