Thursday, June 9, 2011

2011 Belmont Stakes: The Blind Handicap

This will be our 2nd blind handicap as the first was the Preakness and it seemed to work rather well. Though, it's still in the experimental stages. So, we'll take another shot at it and see if we can hit the tri and/or super. This will help to lessen the bias that we have when looking at the contenders because the first thing we look at is their name and our minds automatically, whether you know it or not, develop preconceived notions about that particular horse. It's not a perfect concept, but it should help in determining the best horses. And together with our own biases, there should be a high probability of us having the top horses. Now, where and how to place these horses in the exotic bets is another thing.

Here are the contenders in random order:

An asterisk (*) after the AWD indicates an AWD sample size of less than five, which are the progeny of that sire or bms. The asterisk after the TDR also indicates a small sample size.

Horse A
Race Record: 8-1-3-1
DP: 12-2-30-12-0, DI: 1.07, CD: 0.25
Graded Stakes RR: 4-0-1-1, 9.5f (2nd), 8f (3rd, 6th), 10f (5th)
Figs: BSFs in last 2 races - 99 (March), 95 (May)
        PFs -48, -33
        Rag #s - 8 3/4, 7, 8 3/4
TDR rating: 341
Sire's AWD (dirt/AWS only): 8.73f
BMS's AWD (dirt/AWS): 8.50f
Best BSF and PF: 99, -48

Horse B
Race Record: 13-2-0-1
DP: 1-10-13-0-2, DI: 2.06, CD: 0.31
Graded Stakes RR: 4-0-0-0, 8.5f (6th), 9f (5th), 8f (5th), 9.5f (9th)
Figs: BSFs - 80 (April), 87 (May)
        PFs -8, -19
        Rag #s - 12 1/2, 13, 7 3/4
TDR rating: 420
Sire's AWD (dirt/AWS): 8.50f*
BMS's AWD (dirt/AWS): N/A
Best BSF and PF: 87, -23

Horse C
Race Record: 10-2-3-3
DP: 5-1-5-1-0, DI: 2.43, CD: 0.83
Graded Stakes RR: 7-1-2-2, 8f (2nd, 4th), 9f (2nd, 3rd), 8.5f (1st), 10f (3rd), 9.5f (6th)
Figs: BSFs - 99 (May), 92 (May)
        PFs -41, -34
        Rag #s - 9 3/4, 5 3/4, 6 1/2
TDR rating: 188* (small sample size)
Sire's AWD (dirt/AWS): 8.05f
BMS's AWD (dirt/AWS): 8.50f*
Best BSF and PF: 99 (twice), -63

Horse D
Race Record: 7-3-1-0
DP: 6-13-9-0-2, DI: 3.62, CD: 0.70
Graded Stakes RR: 4-1-1-0, 9f (2nd, 5th), 10f (4th), 9.5f (1st)
Figs: BSFs - 97 (May), 104 (May)
        PFs -39, -64
        Rag #s - 7, 7 3/4, 7 3/4
TDR rating: 298
Sire's AWD (dirt/AWS): 7.09f
BMS's AWD (dirt/AWS): 7.97f
Best BSF and PF: 104, -64

Horse E
Race Record: 6-1-3-0
DP: 12-8-12-0-0, DI: 4.33, CD: 1.00
Graded Stakes RR: 3-0-3-0, 9f, 9f, 10f
Figs: BSFs - 98 (May), 99 (May)
        PFs -52, -42
        Rag #s - 5, 6, 8
TDR rating: 305
Sire's AWD (dirt/AWS): 8.38f
BMS's AWD (dirt/AWS): 8.02f
Best BSF and PF: 99, -56

Horse F
Race Record: 6-3-3-0
DP: 2-0-6-0-0, DI: 1.67, CD: 0.50
Graded Stakes RR: 3-2-1-0, 9f, 10f, 9.5f (2nd)
Figs: BSFs - 103 (May), 103 (May)
        PFs -52, -62
        Rag #s - 6 3/4, 3 1/4, 8 3/4
TDR rating: 365* (small sample size)
Sire's AWD (dirt/AWS): 9.00f
BMS's AWD (dirt/AWS): 9.50f*
Best BSF and PF: 103, -62

Horse G
Race Record: 7-1-3-1
DP: 4-3-21-0-0, DI: 1.67, CD: 0.39
Graded Stakes RR: 5-1-2-0, 8.5f (1st, two 2nds), 9f (9th), 10f (6th)
Figs: BSFs - 82 (April), 95 (May)
        PFs -19, -33
        Rag #s - 8, 11 3/4, 6 1/4
TDR rating: 340
Sire's AWD (dirt/AWS): 8.96f
BMS's AWD (dirt/AWS): 7.88f
Best BSF and PF: 95, -47

Horse H
Race Record: 9-2-2-2
DP: 7-3-23-0-1, DI: 1.72, CD: 0.44
Graded Stakes RR: 2-1-0-0, 9f (1st), 10f (7th)
Figs: BSFs - 93 (April), 95 (May)
        PFs -45, -33
        Rag #s - 7, 6, n/a
TDR rating: 337
Sire's AWD (dirt/AWS): 8.85f
BMS's AWD (dirt/AWS): 7.47f
Best BSF and PF: 95, -55

Horse I
Race Record: 6-2-2-1
DP: 6-1-9-0-0, DI: 2.56, CD: 0.81
Graded Stakes RR: 1-0-0-1, 9f
Figs: BSFs - 86 (March), 83 (May)
        PFs -12, -31
        Rag #s - 10 1/4, 9 1/4, 15
TDR rating: 207*
Sire's AWD (dirt/AWS): 8.25f*
BMS's AWD (dirt/AWS): 7.30f
Best BSF and PF: 86, -31

Horse J
Race Record: 8-3-0-1
DP: 10-2-10-0-0, DI: 3.40, CD: 1.00
Graded Stakes RR: 3-0-0-0, 8.5f (two 5ths), 9f (6th)
Figs: BSFs - 72 (Feb.), 81 (May)
        PFs +10, -6
        Rag #s - Has only one figure better than an 11 (an 8)
TDR rating: 290
Sire's AWD (dirt/AWS): 8.70f
BMS's AWD (dirt/AWS): 8.03f
Best BSF and PF: 90, -41

Horse K
Race Record: 7-2-2-2
DP: 7-1-10-4-0, DI: 1.44, CD: 0.50
Graded Stakes RR: 2-0-1-1, 8.5f (2nd), 9f
Figs: BSFs - 89 (April), 86 (May)
        PFs -46, -19
        Rag #s - 10 1/2, 8, 8
TDR rating: 269
Sire's AWD (dirt/AWS): 7.20f
BMS's AWD (dirt/AWS): N/A
Best BSF and PF: 91, -46

Horse L
Race Record: 7-2-2-0
DP: 4-6-16-0-0, DI: 2.25, CD: 0.54
Graded Stakes RR: 5-1-1-0, 7f (2nd), 8.5f (1st, 5th), 9f (7th), 10f (12th)
Figs: BSFs - 66 (April), 86 (May)
        PFs +12, -13
        Rag #s - Just a 12 1/2 and a 15 1/2 after a top of 6 3/4
TDR rating: 326*
Sire's AWD (dirt/AWS): 8.38f*
BMS's AWD (dirt/AWS): 7.85f
Best BSF and PF: 89, -49




A - Master of Hounds
B - Isn't He Perfect
C - Mucho Macho Man
D - Shackleford
E - Nehro
F - Animal Kingdom
G - Santiva
H - Brilliant Speed
I - Ruler On Ice
J - Monzon
K - Prime Cut
L - Stay Thirsty

Tuesday, June 7, 2011

2011 Belmont Stakes: Preview

The third leg of the Triple Crown is this Saturday and looks to be a good one. The top 7 finishers of the KY Derby are probables along with a few new shooters. And to me, it looks like the winner will come from one of the horses that ran in the Derby which includes Animal Kingdom, Nehro, Mucho Macho Man, Shackleford, Master of Hounds, Santiva and Brilliant Speed. AK should be very tough with his strong late kick and will most certainly be coming hard in the lane nearing the wire. Master of Hounds has the pedigree to excel at this distance as well with his sire producing a Belmont winner in LDK and his bms, Sadler's Wells, is a chef-de-race producing winners at 10-12f hence the Classic/Solid designation. MoH also has Lyphard, another cdr with a Classic designation, in his immediate pedigree and sire of MoH's 2nd dam. So, there's plenty of stamina in MoH's pedigree. Nehro, even though he's by Mineshaft who provides stamina, seems to be best at or around 10f, but he is very talented and classy. MMM is also a horse that seems like he's best at 10f and less, but he's a grinder and doesn't get tired. 12f is definitely too far for Shackleford as he barely hung on for 4th at 10f in the Derby. Santiva is most certainly a dirt horse as his past 2 races on said surface have been his highest BSFs to date. He gets plenty of stamina from his sire and could be a factor at this distance. And lastly, BS arguably has the best pedigree for this distance and has a slew of Belmont winners and producers in his immediate family. And according to drf and BS's past performances, he was only 5.5 lengths from AK in the Derby. This guy could be dangerous in this spot!

My top 5 horses are:

1. Animal Kingdom
2. Nehro
3. Master of Hounds
4. Mucho Macho Man
5. Brilliant Speed

Stay tuned for the 'Belmont Blind Handicap'