Monday, February 14, 2011

Three more big Derby preps next weekend!!

On Saturday (02/19) we have the Risen which will be a good one featuring Rogue Romance and Machen, two of my top 10 Derby contenders along with Santiva and Wilkinson.

On Sunday we have the San Vicente which should also be a good race with horses like Sway Away (in my top 10), Jaycito, Premier Pegasus and possibly The Factor.

And on Monday, a week from today, we have the Southwest which will have some very good horses in it like JP's Gusto, Alternation, Caleb's Posse, Awesome Patriot and one of my top 5 Derby contenders, Elite Alex. I think EA is going to be VERY GOOD!! He has a very nice pedigree and his daddy is one of my all-time favs. And his tail-female line is very nice with Reine-de-course mares like Gay Hostess, Your Hostess and Boudoir. And along the way getting stamina influences from chef-de-races like Nureyev (C), Secretariat (I/C), Prince John (C), Alibahi (C), Mahmoud (I/C) and Clarissimus (C). And also from Le Fabuleux (P) who is in the X-passing position. So, EA is getting plenty of stamina through his dam.

So, 6 of my top 15 Derby contenders run next weekend. Elite Alex, Sway Away, Awesome Patriot, Alternation, Rogue Romance and Machen. I'm really high on EA and I'm eager to see how SA does in his first race since last August in the Best Pal when he was 2nd to JP's Gusto. SA was coming on very strong down the stretch. I love this guy's pedigree, too, and not just 'cuz I loved Afleet Alex when he ran, but I love that his BMS is Slew and his 2nd dam's sire is Summer Squall and her BMS is Mr. Prospector. Very strong pedigree! I'm also excited to see RR 'cuz he's been training very well. And I like Machen, too. I loved his strong late kick in his last outing. Should be 3 very good Derby preps! Can't wait!!

Uncle Mo gets more serious in preparation for 3-year-old debut

Uncle Mo gets more serious in preparation for 3-year-old debut

Sunday, February 13, 2011

My "Derby Dozen" as of 02/13

Here are my top 12 KY Derby contenders/prospects:

1) To Honor And Serve - Has been my top one since last October. Love this guy's pedigree and tail-female line that comes out of the great Family 4 (4-r, Cub Mare), which has produced the most Preakness and Belmont winners. THAS has 2 very nice Reine-de-course mares Java Moon and her dam Golden Trail in his tail-female line as well. So, this guy is stacked with stamina influences starting with his BMS, Deputy Minister, who has produced some great daughters (like Better Than Honour) that have themselves produced Belmont winners Rags To Riches, Jazil and Sarava and the great Curlin. THAS also has stamina influences from Nijinsky and Graustark who are both designated Classic/Solid Chef-de-races. Had a very nice work last Sunday getting 5f in 1:00.80.

2) Elite Alex - His daddy is one of my favorite horses of all time and I picked him out as a 2-yo when I saw his awesome late kick in the BC Juvy. EA has a great pedigree with a tail-female line that includes some great Chef-de-race Classic influences like Nureyev, Secretariat, Prince John, Alibhai, Mahmoud and Clarissimus. EA also has some great Reine-de-course mares like Gay Hostess, Your Hostess and Boudoir. So, this guy has the pedigree/bloodlines to excel at the classic distances.

3) Brethren - Was spectacular in the SFD yesterday. Will be very dangerous as he improves and stretches out. Has a great pedigree and one of the best tail-female lines of all the Derby contenders.

4) Dialed In - How good can this guy be? And how far can he go? He's a great runner and could get even better. Dangerous!

5) Rogue Romance - I love this guy. He's training very well. Has a great tail-female line that goes back to the great broodmare, Plucky Liege. He's going to be a very good runner no matter the surface or distance.

6) Machen - He's my sleeper pick even though he's getting some attention. Though, most people are focused on Mo, THAS, Brethren and Dialed In. I loved his last race with that strong late kick. My favorite kind of horse is one with a very strong late kick like Afleet Alex and Street Sense had. How far can he go though?

7) Casper's Touch - Will have no problem getting the Classic distances as he has tons of stamina influences. I think he's going to be very good come April/May. Watch out for this guy!!

8) Sway Away - Love this guy's pedigree. Has a very nice tail-female line that includes Reine-de-course mares Late Date, Herd Girl and Torpenhow and some great horses like BMS Seattle Slew, Summer Squall, Mr. Prospector, Nashua, Whirlaway and Colin. Will be one to watch!!

9) Bench Points - Had a nice score Friday in a 6f AlowOC race at SA crossing the wire in a fast 1:08 and change. Is 4 for 4 and will be another one to watch on the trail.

10) Wilkinson - I like this little guy, but how good is he? We'll find out in his next Derby prep against better competition.

11) Manicero - This guy is another sleeper! I like his pedigree a lot! Comes out of the great Family 8 (8-c, Woodbine). Family 8 has produced the great broodmare, Better Than Honour. This guy has plenty of stamina influences with Princequillo in the X-passing position and many European influences like Assert who was a champion in France as a 3-yo and his BMS and Chef-de-race, Sea-Bird.

12) Awesome Patriot - How good can this guy be? Has the pedigree to excel against this talented 3-yo class. Dam is full-sister to the great Tiznow. Eager to see his next start which should be The Southwest at Oaklawn.

Saturday, February 12, 2011

My Top 20 KY Derby Prospects (as of 02/12)

Here are my 'Top 20 KY Derby Prospects' as of today, 02/12 (before today's races).
And save for the obvious, Uncle Mo.

1) To Honor And Serve
2) Elite Alex
3) Tapizar
4) Brethren
5) Dialed In
6) Casper's Touch
7) Rogue Romance
8) Machen
9) Sway Away
10) Bench Points
11) Manicero
12) Wilkinson
13) Cal Nation
14) Awesome Patriot
15) Jaycito
16) Santiva
17) Astrology
18) Crossbow
19) Travelin Man
20) Heron Lake

Kentucky Derby Contenders: Derby Watch Top 20 Horses

Kentucky Derby Contenders: Derby Watch Top 20 Horses

Friday, February 11, 2011

Bench Points a winner at 6f

One of my top 12 Derby prospects, Bench Points, won a 6f AlowOC race at SA today (02/11). He crossed the wire in 1:08 and 1. Watch out for this guy!!

3 Key Derby Preps on Saturday (02/12)

Here are the 3 key Derby preps this Saturday:

Robert B. Lewis (G2), 1 1/8m (dirt), Santa Anita
Purse: $250,000


PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER CLAIM $ EQUIP. MED.
1 Wegner R. Bejarano
118 Lbs
B. Baffert   - L
2 Anthony's Cross J. Rosario
118 Lbs
E. Harty   Blk-On L
3 Comma to the Top C. Nakatani
123 Lbs
P. Miller   - L
4 Tapizar G. Gomez
120 Lbs
S. Asmussen   - L
5 Ten Devils J. Talamo
118 Lbs
R. Mandella   - L
6 Riveting Reason V. Espinoza
118 Lbs
M. Cho   Blk-Off L
7 Quail Hill M. Pedroza
118 Lbs
D. Hofmans   - L
8 Thirtyfirststreet P. Valenzuela
118 Lbs
D. O'Neill   - L

Picks: #4 Tapizar, #1 Wegner, #8 Thirtyfirststreet
Scratches: CTTT will run in the ECRD at GG, Quail Hill might scratch

Sam F. Davis (G3), 1 1/16m (dirt), Tampa Bay Downs
Purse: $225,000
 
 PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER CLAIM $ EQUIP. MED.
1 1 Reprized Halo
ML: 20-1
F. Maysonett
120 Lbs
M. Azpurua   -
 2 Adulare
ML: 12-1
A. Solis
116 Lbs
G. Arnold, II   - L
3 3 Washington's Rules
ML: 9-2
K. Desormeaux
116 Lbs
K. McPeek   - L
 4 Too Experience
ML: 12-1
D. Centeno
120 Lbs
M. Passley   - L
5 5 Watch Me Go
ML: 8-1
L. Garcia
116 Lbs
K. O'Connell   - L
6 6 Litigate
ML: 15-1
J. Valdivia, Jr.
116 Lbs
D. Duggan   Blk-Off L
 7 Beamer
ML: 5-1
L. Goncalves
116 Lbs
C. Nafzger   - L
 8 Monzon
ML: 3-1
E. Prado
116 Lbs
I. Correas, IV   - L
 9 Ribo Bobo
ML: 20-1
D. Coa
116 Lbs
M. Azpurua   Blk-On
10 10 Brethren
ML: 5-2
R. Dominguez
116 Lbs
T. Pletcher   - L


Picks: #10 Brethren, #3 Washington's Rules, #7 Beamer

El Camino Real Derby (G3), 1 1/8m (synthetic), Golden Gate
Purse: $200,000


PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER CLAIM $ EQUIP. MED.
1 Comma to the Top C. Nakatani
121 Lbs
P. Miller   - L
2 Bluegrass Reward J. Hernandez
121 Lbs
S. Miyadi   - L
3 Formula Gold H. Romero
121 Lbs
L. Mason   - L
4 Silver Medallion R. Baze
121 Lbs
S. Asmussen   - L
5 Positive Response J. Couton
121 Lbs
W. Morey   - L
6 Anthony's Cross A. Gryder
121 Lbs
E. Harty   Blk-On L
7 Jakesam F. Alvarado
121 Lbs
J. Hollendorfer   - L


Picks: #1 Comma To The Top, #5 Positive Response, #2 Bluegrass Reward

I'm excited to see how good Tapizar and Brethren really are. I do have both of them in my top 10 as of today, 02/11. I also want to see how good Baffert's Wegner is 'cuz I like his pedigree and the first time he tried real dirt he won.