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Tuesday, April 9, 2013

2013 KY Derby Trail

Here we go, guys!!! I guess I'll start out with my top 10 Derby Contenders and we'll go from there.

1. Verrazano
2. Orb
3. Revolutionary
4. Normandy Invasion
5. Goldencents
6. Oxbow
7. Will Take Charge
8. Itsmyluckyday
9. Mylute
10. Vyjack

And a few others I'm keeping my eye on are War Academy, Java's War and Uncaptured, but we still have 3.5 weeks to go and anything can happen and someone else may pop up and get our attention. I'll be attending the BGS at Keeneland on Saturday, so I'm excited for that! Anything you guys want me to post or talk more about, let me know. I'll be posting figs and things like that especially after this weekend when we can really start getting into it and handicapping the Derby.

27 comments:

  1. I love Verrazano and Orb's pedigrees. I've always been a pedigree guy especially when it comes to the Derby. So I put that along with figs, the "eye test" or watching past performances, workouts or how well they're coming up to the big race, pace scenario and post positions or what kind of trip I think they'll get to make my selections. And I have to say that it has treated me rather well over the years. How 'bout your all's top 10 derby contenders?

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  2. Brent!!!!! Great to have you back!!!!

    My Top 10 right now are very similar to yours and are as follows:

    1. Verrazano
    2. Orb
    3. Revolutionary
    4. Normandy Invasion
    5. Oxbow
    6. MyLute
    7. VyJack
    8. War Academy
    9. Govenor Charlie
    10. Itsmyluckyday

    A couple of notable differences, you really seem to like Will Take Charge and Goldencents.

    Questions for you:

    A. Is Oxbow being overworked? Love his pedigree(Paynter-like?), but the Derby, will be his 5th route in less than 4 months. Seems like alot.

    B. Can Goldencents and IMLD get 10 furlongs? Both have impressive speed figs, but I'm skeptical.

    C. Have you ever used Tomlinson Distance Ratings? Thoughts on them? Could you provide those #'s for 10f at some point during our chats?

    Thanks a bunch! And great to have you back. After the Bode miss last year, Karma has to be on our side!

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  3. Verrazano - How can you not love this guy. He's a big strapping colt that keeps on winning. I love his pedigree as he's out of More Than Ready and his BMS is Giant's Causeway, so he should have no problem excelling at the 10f derby distance. http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/pedigree_power/2013_Kentucky_Derby_Pedigree_Profile_Verrazano_123

    Orb - He's a very close 2nd and could be my top pick come derby day. This guy hasn't done much wrong either. He has beaten some very good horses as well. I really like the Malibu Moon/Unbridled cross. Orb should also excel at the derby distance. He has beaten some quality horses and there's a lot to like about this horse. http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/pedigree_power/2013_Kentucky_Derby_Pedigree_Profile_Orb_123

    Revolutionary - I'm not totally on board with this guy, but he's also hard to knock. He has looked very good in his last two. Having AP Indy as his BMS helps him out as I'm not so sure he would relish the 10f being out of War Pass. Also, he hasn't really beaten that much. Mylute is a good horse and gave him a run for his money, but other than that he hasn't beaten much. http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/pedigree_power/2013_Kentucky_Derby_Pedigree_Profile_Revolutionary_123

    Normandy Invasion - I've had an eye on this guy for the past few months and he looked promising with his performance in the Wood. He cracked my top 5 and I think he'll be a good play for the Derby. I like his pedigree as well being out of Tapit and he has the running style that will favor him for the grueling 10f derby distance. I don't quite see him winning it, but I will definitely include him in my exotic plays. http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/pedigree_power/2013_Kentucky_Derby_Contenders_Pedigree_Profiles_123

    Goldencents - He really impressed in the SA Derby. I wasn't that high on this guy, but he showed me a lot in this last one. Looking at his pedigree, he could have some trouble navigating the 10f derby distance. He's already outrunning his pedigree, but he could meet his match in the derby. http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/pedigree_power/Goldencents_Continuing_Delta_Jackpot_Tradition_123

    I'll add more and more as we go along. Those pedigree analyses from hrn are a nice read, so check those out.

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  4. Brian, I hope you're right about the Bode/karma thing! hahaha! I have to say that I have handicapped the Derby rather well the last few years and I think we can nail Derby 139!!
    But yeah, to answer your questions...

    A. That is very possible with Oxbow. He has had a heavy workload, but we'll just have to wait and see how he's doing over these next few weeks and then make a decision on him, but yes, I do like him too!

    B. Yeah, I wrote that about Goldencents above. He is already outrunning his pedigree, but he definitely impressed me in the SA Derby, so I'm kinda on the fence with him right now as far as the 10f distance goes. And IMLD might have a hard time with the 10f as well. His running style helps him, but yeah, I don't see him winning at 10f. Might put him in the bottom of my exotics though.

    C. I have used TDR before and mainly use it as just a minor reference. I don't put much stock into them, but I'll definitely put some #'s up at some point.

    And I do like WTC, but I'm not sure about the move to just work him up to the derby. I do like that he'll be fresh, but does he have enough experience to run well against the top ones in the derby, that's the question for me. He'll most likely be a bottom exotics type horse. I do like his pedigree and his last outing was very nice!

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  5. Brent, in your estimation, can either of the lightly raced Bafferts, War Academy and Govenor Charlie, be reasonably compared to Bodemeister? Unraced at 2, 4 starts heading into the Derby (only 3 for GC)... do they have that kind of talent?

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  6. I like both of these horses and they might move into my top 10. I don't compare them to Bode cause he was something special, but in terms of how they're going into derby, War Academy could impress in the Arkansas and be a live one for the derby. I think GC is very talented, but might be too lightly raced and has a tall order come derby day facing some very good horses he just hasn't seen yet. That being said, I do like both of these and can see one of them finishing in the top 5 in the derby. I love WA's pedigree! He should have no problem getting 10f. GC has a nice pedigree as well and should handle 10f, but probably not his best distance. I'll most certainly be doing some more research on these two though. We'll know more after this weekend. I'm definitely coming down with a fever...DERBY FEVER!!!

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  7. What do these moves tell you??? Very interesting...

    Mike Smith chose War Academy over Oxbow

    Johnny V chose Verrazano over Orb

    Joel Rosario chose Orb over VyJack

    Javier Castellano chose Normandy Invasion over Revolutionary

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  8. Wow! The one that's surprising to me is Castellano! That is VERY interesting! I can see why the other 3 jocks chose the horses they did, but I would not have guessed Javier choosing NI over Revolutionary. That should tell us something. I mean, I had NI in my top 4 already, but didn't have him rated above Revolutionary. I think our top 4 are solid right now and the others will be moved around before derby day. WA would be in my top 10, but I was kinda waiting to see what he did on Saturday before I made that move. I like him a lot though!

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  9. So, I think my first question was answered this weekend... Oxbow is exhausted!

    I thought both preps were kinda weak, but I prefer the BG contenders to the AD contenders.

    Thoughts?

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  10. Yeah, oxbox is probably off my top 10 list and i like Java's War which makes Verrazano look good. And I'm not sure about Overanalyze yet, but he'll be in my top 10.

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  11. 17 days out... and I'm updating my Top 10. I think it's important to note, that my Top 10 is not necessarily the 10 most likely to win, but my Top 10 horses that I'll consider using in a Superfecta. A few are not win candidates for me, but they are bottom fillers who will be running late (I think).

    Top 10 (17 days to go):
    1. Verrazano
    2. Orb
    3. Revolutionary
    4. Normandy Invasion
    5. VyJack
    6. Java's War
    7. Charming Kitten
    8. MyLute
    9. Govenor Charlie
    10. Itsmyluckyday

    Still very premature, but it's fun anyway...

    Question for you Brent... How do I go about getting the Beyer speed figures for non-winning horses? For instance, Charming Kitten in his last two races finished 2nd and 3rd, but I cant locate his Beyers online. Any thoughts? On him or others?

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  12. So, I've watched a few of the videos of works at CD... Normandy Invasion and Revolutionary looked like they were gliding over the track just effortlesssly... Really impressed...

    Verrazano and WTC also looked smooth, but not quite as good as the Top two, and they seem to be a little more of the lumbering sort...

    I did NOT like Oxbow's work, but trainer and jockey both seemed too... he looked like he was really working hard with choppy strides...

    Can't wait to see Orb and Vyjack...

    I'm also starting to warm up to Palace Malice a bit.. not sure why, other than I just loved Curlin..

    I'm starting to think about bet structures...

    Any idea if/when Lines of Battle is showing up?

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  13. Hey man, sorry so late getting back. Charming kitten's bsf was 88 for the bgs and an 81 for the palm beach. If you go to drf.com and click on derby watch near the top of the page you can then click on any of the top 20 horses and get their bsf's.
    And I'm not sure about LOB and when he'll be at cd. But as of right now my top 10 looks like this...
    1. Orb
    2. Verrazano
    3. Revolutionary
    4. Normandy Invasion
    5. Java's War
    6. Itsmyluckyday
    7. Govenor Charlie
    8. Mylute
    9. Goldencents
    10. Vyjack

    A few of these might change in the next week with works and pps. 10 days away!!!

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  14. No worries!! Can't wait to see the posts drawn next week.

    So it looks like Lines of Battle will be here next Wednesday.. The last possible day! Toss for me.

    Govenor Charlie is sliding for me too...just don't think he's ready for this test.

    QQ... Have you ever heard of a horse using a hyperbaric chamber like VyJack did at FairHill? Wonder if that gives any edge?

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  15. Yes, I think I've heard of a horse using a hyperbaric chamber before, but I'm not so sure it gives him an edge or anything.
    I think my pick for this year's derby is Orb. I love his pedigree for the classic and I think he has a very good chance of popping and running a big one after pairing 97s. He's improving and getting good at the right time and could have a peak performance in the derby. He also beat a horse going away who's had 2 triple digit beyers (IMLD).
    If I had to have a top 5, this would be it...
    1. Orb
    2. Normandy Invasion
    3. Revolutionary
    4. Verrazano
    5. Govenor Charlie

    I like GC cause his beyers went up with added distance and they're on par with this group. He's also a pretty fresh horse and I like his pedigree and connections. The downside with him though is that he's not battle tested. We'll just have to see how he's doing up to the derby and what kind of pp he gets.
    Also, I think I'm knocking JW down a bit because both of his bad races were at CD. Don't like that. And I'm worried about distance limitations for IMLD, so I'll probably knock him down a bit too. That leaves Mylute, Goldencents and Vyjack in regards to my top 10 and I'm still mulling over them...

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  16. Didn't know about GC's foot issues, so I'll be dropping him now and I think I'm gonna move Palace Malice up on my list. I like his pedigree and he's improving at the right time and could put in a good run. I think my top contenders look like this now...
    1. Orb
    2. Normandy Invasion
    3. Revolutionary
    4. Verrazano
    5. Itsmyluckyday
    6. Palace Malice
    7. Vyjack
    8. Goldencents
    9. Overanalyze
    10. Mylute

    I like my top 5 for the top 3 spots in the derby and for the 4th slot and maybe even the 3rd, I like the other 5. It's kind of hard once you get past the top 4 horses, but also the pp draw will help out some. Oh, and I'm gonna give IMLD a shot cause he's a good horse, just not sure about his distance abilities. 1 week to go!!!

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  17. Good to hear Brent! Our Top 4 have not fluctuated at all these last 3 weeks, so I feel good about that...

    Last year, I had more horses I was willing to toss.. not so this year.. I feel like after the Top 4, there are up to 10 horses that could make their way into 3rd or 4th... Still too many...

    My Top 10 are:
    1. Orb
    2. Normandy Invasion
    3. Revolutionary
    4. Verrazano
    5. MyLute
    6. Java's War
    7. IMLD
    8. Palace Malice
    9. Goldencents
    10 VyJack

    Trouble is my 5-10 are all interchangeable.. The only horse we have different is Java's War for me, and Overanalyze for you.

    Any thoughts on Pace? We looking at :46 and 1:10 or :47.5 and 1:11.5?

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  18. You're right. After the top 4, the other horses are interchangeable. I don't see a super speedy horse, so I think we're looking at a reasonable pace in here. Probably something like :23+ :47+ and 1:11+. If that's the case, this will help out horses like Goldencents and IMLD to stay the grueling 10f which could make them dangerous in here! Would be very hard to dismiss those 2. They'll probably make it into some of my bets, mostly in the bottom of my exotics. But our top 4 look very solid and I'm very confident in Orb. He very much looks the part! I'm gonna try this week to put together an analysis for each of our top 10 contenders. Placing everything on one page and comparing them together will help us out. Anything you want me to put on there let me know, but I'll definitely put their figs, pedigree analysis, past performances and what to expect from them for the derby. I'm getting pretty darn excited!!!

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  19. I know it may not play much of a role, but I'm still interested to see their Tomlinson Distance Ratings.

    Let's do this!

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  20. Brent, after the PP draw, I'd like to send you some data and have you critique it for me, if you have the time and wouldn't mind. I can send you my email, or vice-versa, if that's cool with you.

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  21. Post positions for the 2013 Kentucky Derby:
    1. Black Onyx 50-1
    2. Oxbow 30-1
    3. Revolutionary 10-1
    4. Golden Soul 50-1
    5. Normandy Invasion 12-1
    6. Mylute 15-1
    7. Giant Finish 50-1
    8. Goldencents 5-1
    9. Overanalyze 15-1
    10. Palace Malice 20-1
    11. Lines of Battle 30-1
    12. Itsmyluckyday 15-1
    13. Falling Sky 50-1
    14. Verrazano 4-1
    15. Charming Kitten 20-1
    16. Orb 7-2
    17. Will Take Charge 20-1
    18. Frac Daddy 50-1
    19. Java's War 15-1
    20. Vyjack 15-1
    21 (AE). Fear the Kitten

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  22. My email is austinbnike@hotmail.com..my top 5 remain the same. Also, I'm going to Florida on business tomorrow morning so I'm not sure how much I'll get done before derby day. And I can't locate the tdr's so if you can find them go ahead and post them

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  23. http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=CD&race=11&date=2013-05-04

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  24. So, is this rain gonna favor Closers or those closer to the front? Closers are gona take alot of kickback, but the pace setters could get burned up by a difficult track?

    Thoughts?

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  25. Sorry bub, been working. I'll get to watch the derby though. I think it favors mid-pack horses that can get a good trip preferably near the outside

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  26. Called that one!! Just didn't have golden soul in there anywhere

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  27. 2014 handicapping happening?

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